A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) constitute the most common class of models across ecology, evolution and conservation. The advent of ready-to-use software packages and increasing availability of digital geoinformation have considerably assisted the application of SDMs in the past decade, greatly enabling their broader use for informing conservation and management, and for quantifying impacts from global change. However, models must be fit for purpose, with all important aspects of their development and applications properly considered. Despite the widespread use of SDMs, standardisation and documentation of modelling protocols remain limited, which makes it hard to assess whether development steps are appropriate for end use. To address these issues, we propose a standard protocol for reporting SDMs, with an emphasis on describing how a study's objective is achieved through a series of modeling decisions. We call this the ODMAP (Overview, Data, Model, Assessment and Prediction) protocol, as its components reflect the main steps involved in building SDMs and other empirically-based biodiversity models. The ODMAP protocol serves two main purposes. First, it provides a checklist for authors, detailing key steps for model building and analyses, and thus represents a quick guide and generic workflow for modern SDMs. Second, it introduces a structured format for documenting and communicating the models, ensuring transparency and reproducibility, facilitating peer review and expert evaluation of model quality, as well as meta-analyses. We detail all elements of ODMAP, and explain how it can be used for different model objectives and applications, and how it complements efforts to store associated metadata and define modelling standards. We illustrate its utility by revisiting nine previously published case studies, and provide an interactive web-based application to facilitate its use. We plan to advance ODMAP by encouraging its further refinement and adoption by the scientific community

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries

Background: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. Methods: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. Discussion: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country

Isotemporal substitution of inactive time with physical activity and time in bed: cross-sectional associations with cardiometabolic health in the PREDIMEDPlus study

Background: This study explored the association between inactive time and measures of adiposity, clinical parameters, obesity, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome components. It further examined the impact of reallocating inactive time to time in bed, light physical activity (LPA) or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) on cardio-metabolic risk factors, including measures of adiposity and body composition, biochemical parameters and blood pressure in older adults. Methods: This is a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from 2189 Caucasian men and women (age 55-75 years, BMI 27-40 Kg/m2) from the PREDIMED-Plus study (http://www.predimedplus.com/). All participants had ≥3 components of the metabolic syndrome. Inactive time, physical activity and time in bed were objectively determined using triaxial accelerometers GENEActiv during 7 days (ActivInsights Ltd., Kimbolton, United Kingdom). Multiple adjusted linear and logistic regression models were used. Isotemporal substitution regression modelling was performed to assess the relationship of replacing the amount of time spent in one activity for another, on each outcome, including measures of adiposity and body composition, biochemical parameters and blood pressure in older adults. Results: Inactive time was associated with indicators of obesity and the metabolic syndrome. Reallocating 30 min per day of inactive time to 30 min per day of time in bed was associated with lower BMI, waist circumference and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (all p-values < 0.05). Reallocating 30 min per day of inactive time with 30 min per day of LPA or MVPA was associated with lower BMI, waist circumference, total fat, visceral adipose tissue, HbA1c, glucose, triglycerides, and higher body muscle mass and HDL cholesterol (all p-values < 0.05). Conclusions: Inactive time was associated with a poor cardio-metabolic profile. Isotemporal substitution of inactive time with MVPA and LPA or time in bed could have beneficial impact on cardio-metabolic health

Long daytime napping is associated with increased adiposity and type 2 diabetes in an elderly population with metabolic syndrome

Research examining associations between objectively-measured napping time and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is lacking. This study aimed to evaluate daytime napping in relation to T2D and adiposity measures in elderly individuals from the Mediterranean region. A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from 2190 elderly participants with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome, in the PREDIMED-Plus trial, was carried out. Accelerometer-derived napping was measured. Prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for T2D were obtained using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression with constant time. Linear regression models were fitted to examine associations of napping with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). Participants napping ≥90 min had a higher prevalence of T2D (PR 1.37 (1.06, 1.78)) compared with those napping 5 to <30 min per day. Significant positive associations with BMI and WC were found in those participants napping ≥30 min as compared to those napping 5 to <30 min per day. The findings of this study suggest that longer daytime napping is associated with higher T2D prevalence and greater adiposity measures in an elderly Spanish population at high cardiovascular risk

Morbid liver manifestations are intrinsically bound to metabolic syndrome and nutrient intake based on a machine-learning cluster analysis

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is one of the most important medical problems around the world. Identification of patient ' s singular characteristic could help to reduce the clinical impact and facilitate individualized management. This study aimed to categorize MetS patients using phenotypical and clinical variables habitually collected during health check-ups of individuals considered to have high cardiovascular risk. The selected markers to categorize MetS participants included anthropometric variables as well as clinical data, biochemical parameters and prescribed pharmacological treatment. An exploratory factor analysis was carried out with a subsequent hierarchical cluster analysis using the z-scores from factor analysis. The first step identified three different factors. The first was determined by hypercholesterolemia and associated treatments, the second factor exhibited glycemic disorders and accompanying treatments and the third factor was characterized by hepatic enzymes. Subsequently four clusters of patients were identified, where cluster 1 was characterized by glucose disorders and treatments, cluster 2 presented mild MetS, cluster 3 presented exacerbated levels of hepatic enzymes and cluster 4 highlighted cholesterol and its associated treatments Interestingly, the liver status related cluster was characterized by higher protein consumption and cluster 4 with low polyunsaturated fatty acid intake. This research emphasized the potential clinical relevance of hepatic impairments in addition to MetS traditional characterization for precision and personalized management of MetS patients

Seafood Consumption, Omega-3 Fatty Acids Intake, and Life-Time Prevalence of Depression in the PREDIMED-Plus Trial

Background: The aim of this analysis was to ascertain the type of relationship between fish and seafood consumption, omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω-3 PUFA) intake, and depression prevalence. Methods: Cross-sectional analyses of the PREDIMED-Plus trial. Fish and seafood consumption and ω-3 PUFA intake were assessed through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Self-reported life-time medical diagnosis of depression or use of antidepressants was considered as outcome. Depressive symptoms were collected by the Beck Depression Inventory-II. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between seafood products and ω-3 PUFA consumption and depression. Multiple linear regression models were fitted to assess the association between fish and long-chain (LC) ω-3 PUFA intake and depressive symptoms. Results: Out of 6587 participants, there were 1367 cases of depression. Total seafood consumption was not associated with depression. The odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals (CIs)) for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quintiles of consumption of fatty fish were 0.77 (0.63–0.94), 0.71 (0.58–0.87), and 0.78 (0.64–0.96), respectively, and p for trend = 0.759. Moderate intake of total LC ω-3 PUFA (approximately 0.5–1 g/day) was significantly associated with a lower prevalence of depression. Conclusion: In our study, moderate fish and LC ω-3 PUFA intake, but not high intake, was associated with lower odds of depression suggesting a U-shaped relationship

Dietary diversity and nutritional adequacy among an older Spanish population with Metabolic Syndrome in the PREDIMED-Plus study: a cross-sectional analysis

Dietary guidelines emphasize the importance of a varied diet to provide an adequate nutrient intake. However, an older age is often associated with consumption of monotonous diets that can be nutritionally inadequate, increasing the risk for the development or progression of diet-related chronic diseases, such as metabolic syndrome (MetS). To assess the association between dietary diversity (DD) and nutrient intake adequacy and to identify demographic variables associated with DD, we cross-sectionally analyzed baseline data from the PREDIMED-Plus trial: 6587 Spanish adults aged 55–75 years, with overweight/obesity who also had MetS. An energy-adjusted dietary diversity score (DDS) was calculated using a 143-item validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Nutrient inadequacy was defined as an intake below 2/3 of the dietary reference intake (DRI) forat least four of 17 nutrients proposed by the Institute of Medicine (IOM). Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between DDS and the risk of nutritionally inadequate intakes. In the higher DDS quartile there were more women and less current smokers. Compared with subjects in the highest DDS quartile, those in the lowest DDS quartile had a higher risk of inadequate nutrient intake: odds ratio (OR) = 28.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 20.80–39.21). When we estimated food varietyfor each of the food groups, participants in the lowest quartile had a higher risk of inadequate nutrient intake for the groups of vegetables, OR = 14.03 (95% CI 10.55–18.65), fruits OR = 11.62 (95% CI 6.81–19.81), dairy products OR = 6.54 (95% CI 4.64–9.22) and protein foods OR = 6.60 (95% CI 1.96–22.24). As DDS decreased, the risk of inadequate nutrients intake rose. Given the impact of nutrient intake adequacy on the prevention of non-communicable diseases, health policies should focus on the promotion of a healthy varied diet, specifically promoting the intake of vegetables and fruit among population groups with lower DDS such as men, smokers or widow(er)s. View Full-Tex

The number of tree species on Earth

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness. Please note an (erratum/corrigendum) for this article is available via https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.220278411

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species$^{1,2}$. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies$^{3,4}$. Here, leveraging global tree databases$^{5,6,7}$, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions